One of the most common and most successful simple betting strategies used to make money on NFL games is to "fade the public". This simply means bet against the public, as the regular Joe who bets on his favorite football team usually doesn't do research, and doesn't understand how bookies actually set lines. True, this used to be an instant path to the bank more than 20 years ago, and today's National Football League bettors are much more informed thanks to the Internet. But you may be surprised at how efficient this strategy still is, especially when you compare and combine it with your own research. Let us take an in-depth look at exactly how to fade the public and have your sportsbook actually give you the best possible betting odds.
Basically put, this strategy is based on the idea that the public is generally wrong. Obviously, there would not be a huge city devoted entirely to gambling called Las Vegas if the average bettor new what the heck he or she was doing. Savvy veteran NFL gamblers, and of those in other major sports as well, understand that some teams receive much more betting support than they deserve, and they also understand that the average Sunday bettor tends to gravitate towards betting on his team when they are a favorite, as well as betting the over versus the under on the total. Think about it. If I am a lifelong fan of the San Francisco 49ers, and I am just a casual gambler, I like to think of my team in a positive manner. That means believing that they are the favorite every week, and that they can score at will.
Sportsbook operators both on and off-line understand this, and you can use this to your advantage. Obviously, getting the best sports betting odds in any sporting contest or endeavor means taking your heart out of the equation. I personally make it a rule not to bet on the Atlanta Falcons, since that is the team I have been rooting for for 40 years. I understand that subconsciously I may make a bet that goes against all intelligent research. So I simply do not bet on them. But if Atlanta ever became such a popular team nationwide that their lines were inflated, you had better believe I would begin to bet against my favorite team if it made sense. I would head strait to one of the trusted USA sports betting sites and bet against my favorite team.
The media loves over-hyping winning teams, meaning that if the Kansas City Chiefs had three seasons of great football, and were coming off a Super Bowl appearance from the previous year, there could be some serious inflation in the early lines which would deserve your attention. Sportsbooks love to exploit betting tendencies, and they will shade favorites and overs. Let us say that the Chiefs are in the above scenario, and they are playing the Washington Redskins. The early line has them giving up 6.0 points to the Skins on the road. It is week 13, and the Kansas City Chiefs are 9 - 3 with Washington flipping that record, at 3 - 9. On the surface you feel like this may be look like a blowout win for Kansas City bettors taking the Chiefs as a favorite.
Then you do a little research and find out that Washington is 7 - 2 as an underdog this season ATS, as well as 5 - 1 ATS at home this year when getting more than 4 points! And you also discover that the Chiefs are just 6 - 11 their last 17 games on the road against NFC teams ATS. When you also understand that early lines move towards the two key numbers 3 and 7, you see that the sportsbook operator knows the early public bettors will probably start driving Kansas City towards giving up 7 points. The line is inflated, and recent research shows Washington is the play here. Also, we are getting near the end of the season, Kansas City was in the Super Bowl last year in our imaginary scenario, and the playoffs are just around the corner. With one team at 9 - 3 and the other team at 3 - 9, all the talk will be on television, radio and the Internet about how strong the Kansas City Chiefs are, and about how the Washington Redskins are struggling this year.
The public will no doubt start hammering the Chiefs, so in this situation you will want to watch the line closely as soon as it breaks. You may even be able to get the Skins at +7.0 points if you are patient. This gives you the benefit of that key NFL number (7) which can give you a push instead of a loss if you took 6.5 points. Fading the public has been a successful strategy for years for one main reason ... it works! But do not just immediately bet against the public opinion. Do your research first, watch the early line movement, and if your information shows that the public is heading in the wrong direction, fade the public and take home the cash.
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